A mere two months prior that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery scolded him over missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team went six without a win, doubts remained whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough question to resolve. The historical record, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, Villa look curiously susceptible – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with rivals and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the player he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable the team would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are rare in football and must be appreciated.
